Peak Oil -
Oil, Gas & Energy Stock Prices

Are we running out of oil?

In his paper "Big Geology for Big Needs," published in the February 1964 AAPG BULLETIN, A.I. Levorsen projected total United States oil demand of 22 million barrels per day in 2000, with U.S. oil supply of 14 million barrels per day (see figures, left).

Levorsen's demand number appears remarkably accurate, only slightly higher than current forecasts. But his supply number contrasts sharply with average 1999 U.S. oil production of just over 5.9 million barrels per day.

The difference? Levorsen expected a much higher rate of oil discovery during the past 35 years, and anticipated a much lower level of imports.

Supply pessimists take the industry's declining oil discovery rate as an alarm signal, portending a crisis on the near horizon. Most believe world oil production will peak within a decade -- if it hasn't already.

"The peak of production will be a more important occurrence than any other event in human history, affecting more people, in more places," said AAPG member Walter Youngquist, a leading proponent of the scarcity theory. Youngquist is one of a small, persistent group of geologists seeking public and government awareness of this view. L.F. "Buzz" Ivanhoe calls them the Cassandras, after the mythological Trojan princess who could foretell the future but was doomed never to be believed.

"There are a number of us who are petroleum geologists, upstream petroleum professionals. We're all retired, so we can say what we want to," Youngquist said.